A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
